Monday, May 12, 2014

EURUSD flat ahead of Core Retail Sales

Data Source: Census Bureau

Despite US Core Retail Sales matching its best performance of the year in April at 0.7%, the EURO is positioned to resume its resilient move higher. The DOLLAR is faced with renewed downward pressure as markets anticipate US Core Retail Sales (m/m) to slip 0.1%. This notion is further validated by the historical correlation between US Core Retail Sales and the EURUSD. Although most technical signs point to a BEARISH USD outlook, any soft EUROZONE economic news may curb analysts’ predictions and market reactions.

Technical Outlook: Initial bias to the upside for the EURO but DOLLAR strength not off the table if there are any bullish surprises from the upcoming economic events.

Initial Support: ~1.3761

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