Tuesday, May 13, 2014

EURO poised to regain ground against the DOLLAR



Data Source: BLS

Despite weaker than expected retail sales reported yesterday EURUSD failed to hold at our initial support level of 1.3761 which leaves it vulnerable to the downside ahead of US PPI. The EURUSD is poised to regain Technical ground if US PPI release meets expectations. The chart above further shows the negative correlation of their relationship. With no highly Iimpactful EUROZONE news on the table, Technical signs point to a BULLISH EURO.

Technical Outlook: EURUSD Bearish below 1.3761 Support and if potential Dollar extension higher on better than expected economic news.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use:

Monday, May 12, 2014

EURUSD flat ahead of Core Retail Sales


Data Source: Census Bureau

Despite US Core Retail Sales matching its best performance of the year in April at 0.7%, the EURO is positioned to resume its resilient move higher. The DOLLAR is faced with renewed downward pressure as markets anticipate US Core Retail Sales (m/m) to slip 0.1%. This notion is further validated by the historical correlation between US Core Retail Sales and the EURUSD. Although most technical signs point to a BEARISH USD outlook, any soft EUROZONE economic news may curb analysts’ predictions and market reactions.

Technical Outlook: Initial bias to the upside for the EURO but DOLLAR strength not off the table if there are any bullish surprises from the upcoming economic events.

Initial Support: ~1.3761

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use:

Sunday, May 11, 2014

EURO Under Pressure: Forex Trading Technical Analysis | EURUSD | 5/11/2014





EURO remains under pressure against the Dollar after slipping ~1.0% last week following a Dovish outlook on ECB Monetary Policies from Draghi. The Franklin Market Gauge is still issuing a sell EURO bias heading into the upcoming trading week. Although the trade remains statistically valid, the EURO is currently testing a minor support area.

Short Term  Statistical Outlook: Bearish

Initial Support: ~1.3740-1.3750
Next Support Target: ~1.3710-1.3700

Initial Resistance: ~1.3770
Next Resistance Target: ~1.3790-1.3800


U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use:

Forex Quant Update: CAD faces further Downward Pressure following the surprised weak Employment Change in April




Fundamental Insight

USDCAD started the May 4th 2014 economic week with a quantitative trade bias to sell this Forex pair and buy the Franklin Dollar Index (FDX). This turned into a 150+ pip assault on the Dollar as the FDX slumped ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's Testimony on the US Economy. The trade eventually materialized as USDCAD continued to move lower, decoupling further from the FDX which was staging a recovery following Yellens' stance on Monetary Policy. USDCAD consolidated around the 1.0820 area before surging higher after the market was surprised with an unexpected decline of ~29K in CAD Employment (Est. +~13K).

Spread Trade Technical Insight

Looking ahead to the May 11th 2014 Forex Trading week, USDCAD is currently facing initial resistance near the ~1.0900 area. The Franklin Trend Gauge appears positioned to issue a buy USDCAD sell FDX trade. This trade bias is supported by the Franklin Z-score which triggered on May 9th 2014. Analyzing the chart above, the wide spread gap being exhibited by the Loonie and Franklin Dollar Index supports the potential for re-coupling. We are expecting a statistical correction between USDCAD and the other Major Dollar based currency pairs.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use: