Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Retail Sales look to rebound ahead of Holiday Shopping Season


After USD Retail Sales dropped 0.1% in October, the USD looks poised to gain ground against the Euro as analysts expect month over month Retail Sales will improve 0.1%. This assumption is supported by an observed short term negative correlation relationship between the EURUSD pair and Retail Sales.  However, if the projection fails to meet at least expectations, the EURO is likely to find support to the upside, heading into the US holiday shopping season. 


Technical Outlook: EURO remains under pressure but DOLLAR faces renewed risk on weaker than expected economic calendar results. 

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

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Weekly Jobless Claims look to improve; EURO remains vulnerable

Data Source: BLS

Following the weaker than expected USD Jobless Claims and Trade balance last week, the EURO managed a slight recovery against the DOLLAR from the previous week. Analyzing just the relationship between the EURUSD pair and Jobless claims, the general observation supports a better than expected unemployment claim number acts an stronger DOLLAR catalyst. Finishing this trading week, the EURUSD is likely to remain volatile as traders brace for the remaining fairly heavy economic impact calendar. US Jobless claims are expected to improve which is likely to put further pressure on the EURO but this remains contingent on the other economic indicators and their results.

Technical Outlook: EURODOLLAR continues to face downward pressure below the 1.3600 area

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use:

Sunday, November 10, 2013

CADUSD and Crude Oil Technical Update

*Data Source: EIA
The LoonieDollar continues to follow crude oil lower after decoupling from its relationship in September. CADUSD is moving towards its ~0.9530 level but could test ~0.9450 before a possible reversal higher. CADUSD short term risk exposure remains to the downside even though we believe Crude Oil is reaching oversold conditions and might attempt a directional change. Examining the correlation relationship, a move higher in Crude Oil should support a CADUSD move higher. However, Crude is likely to outpace the Loonie in the event of a reversal to the upside.

Technical Outlook:  Initial focus is Short LoonieDollar Long Crude Oil.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use:

Dollar Index Points Higher


Dollar Index gaining traction as the S&P 500 continues to climb higher following the November, 2013 Job Report numbers. The Dollar Index two year return % back in the black positive ~5.71% while the S&P 500 is up ~41.28%.

Technical Outlook: Dollar remains vulnerable to the downside.  A move below 79 could trigger a technical sell-off.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use:

EURUSD Technical Update After Surprise Rate Cut

Data Source: BLS
EURUSD eyeing its two year average after failing to breach the 1.3800 level last month. The EURUSD remains under pressure after a better than expected November, 2013 USD Non-Farm Employment report and surprised ECB Rate Cut last week. Our Currency analyst believe that the EURO is subject to Technical volatility against the Dollar at least in the short term.

Technical Outlook: Neutral with the potential for the EURO to continue moving lower but a Dollar correction is not off the table.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

​CFFC Rule § 4.41 Regarding Hypothetical Performance-These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

General Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in any of these markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any financial market transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a financial instrument such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes.

Furthermore, the opinions concerning currencies, securities, and other investment assets expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individual author or contributor and have neither been endorsed as the official opinions of Franklin Global Capital LLC aka FG Capital, LLC, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor certified or warranted as to their accuracy. Clients and subscribers should seek additional opinions, conduct due diligence, consider carefully their own specific investment situation, and exercise sound business judgment in evaluating the risks involved with each investment before acting upon the information and opinions contained herein.

Please Read our Full Disclosure & Terms of Use: